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‘8 the McKinley Tariff of 1890 through the Lens
of Modern Trade Theory
[o3
Research]
Abstract
This paper was written with
oIP_
shot prompt (from Kevin Bryan)
on
Hesearch
no iteration
10 minutes of
thinking.
The Tariff Act o1 180U
heuter kowII as Ulie
McKiuley TarifT.
1al
pivotal episodle in Us
[radle policy. (rat-
ulittic ullv
imp)ort dutios t0 Htur-rord levls
Tlis pape r providles 4ni alilysis of
the McKinley Tariff hy integrating historical evidlelce with insights from Inodlern inter –
natiolal trade tlieory
We revisit tlie econoiic andl political debates of tle 1890s
culitemnporary trdle Ilodlels
includling Iodlels o[ leterogeueous firmis (Melitz. 2013)
Ricirdlifui comparative flvantige in general cqluilibriu (Eaton #nd Kortun. 20N)2)
andl other Iew tradle theory
ilvanic’es
re-ovaluate the tariff s imparts.
Historical
(lata oll tradle Hlows
tariff rates
aldl indlustry output are alalyzedl alongside contempo
Fary acculnts to dSsU35
tlie sliort – aldl long-rUHI effects of tlie tariff.
We find tliat whiile
tic
McKinley Tariff acceleratedl the dlevelopnent ofcertain industries (Iotably tinplate
production) alid was impleIented in al era of chiangilg comparative advantage for tlie
Uuited States
its overall welfare effects were Iixed and likely uegative wlie’n evaluated
witli moleri
Lriidle llelrits
Tle tirifT’s protective giins to Iilmufaeturers cittit’ il
thic cost o higher prices for consuniers alldl implicit burdlens oII
agricultural exporters.
However , conisisteut withi Iioderi trade modlels the United States
Iarket
uieant
Sumnle
iuicitlelce Was borie by
foreigu exporters
Tlie paper colicludes hv
(rawing parallels between tle McKinley TurifT episodle and couteinp)orary trade’ policy
teIsiols , includling re’eut US-Clili tariff (lisl”tes indl tIehates over protectionisi in
thie global tradling system,
Introduction
In Octoler 1890)
The Vew Yorl Tirnes rul
leadlline lameuting
prices: “Up Ciu Tlie
Prices Now; Ilow Ulie Mckinlev Tarifi Taxes tlie Necessaries o Lile
Tlis contemporary
reactionl capturedl Uie
alxiety towardl tlie Tariff Act
of 1890),
cornrnonly kiowil a5
tie
McKinlev Tariff-
Namedl after Congressian (indl future Presidlent) Iilliam McKinley;
the
act raised iverage import ‘lutios
Inprecedlented heiglits
Iearly 50V
on dlutiable
Ilpurts.
uP IroI roughly 3876 previously
Taussig. 1911)
It exeinplified tlie zenitl of 19th-
ceitury Aierican protectionisl; provoking fierce (lebate hetweel proponents wlio arguecl it
[OrnAll
‘[“nil”Iie”( :
Rolwil
Neny Yik Tin”,
Octolir 21
IS’U)
would safeguard Aierican indlustrieg ald critics wlio wurucd or ligler collsuller COsts and
interMational retaliation
This Daper revisits thie McKinley Tarifl with tlie henefit o1 moclern cConouic theory and
historical hindlsight . Our goal is to provide
fresli analysis Of tlie tariff
(allse’s aldl
nrrtive historical approach with analytical frame works dlevelopedl in
international tradle ecollonlics over (lie pitst [ew decades
Specilicallv.
cuploy insiglts Irolu
“IleW trile
Iludlcls
including heteroyeneous-firu moclels (Melitz;
20))3) . uulti-country Ri-
cardlian Ioxlels (Laton anel Korti, 20102)
alcl
gravity-hased approaclies
to iterpsret tlie’
impaet of the McKinley Tariff on tradle flows
welfare
and tlie US
“(OllOJIIV
st1lctural
transformiationl
We Rlso (Iraw onl primary historical data andl Rccounts to ground olr Rnal
Ysis in tlie realities of (lie’ late 19tli ceutury.
Ultinatcly.
We culilpare
tlic liistorical trale
debite to conteiporary issues sucli is US.-China trade teIsions jndl tlie’ resurgeuee o Iro
tectionism, highilighting enduring lessons for current policy
Ilry
exallille’
13U-Year-oldl tariff tlrouyl
tlie lens o1 Inodlern tlieory?
Tle late Iotli
centiry
Was
foriative periol for tlie
Aiericanl economy,
mnarking
elergenice
industrial puwerliolse .
BetweeI 1890) audl 1910. (lic Uuited States (raiatically sliifted [ronl
tradle pattern o[ priiaurily exporting agricultural gootls ind importing mLinufactures t0
ltcoming
Iet exporter oL inclustrial pro(lucts (Irwin,
20117).
Ilie Mckiilev Tarill wis CII-
actedl at tlie CIIsI’ or this trallsforulation
Aualyzing tlris policy witli tolay
ecollonic molels
all0ws ls to (Iuintily all(l ulclerstalldl its efiects in
way that conitemporaries colldl ,ot
Fiir-
theruiore
mnany o the dehaites from the 18913 eclio in todlay
dIisc’ussions: argilinents alout
protecting iillustrius {IIdI workers
CUNICCIUIS
about
(UIlsuIleI IriCes
uldl (uestions
ilult
wlietlier (arills (all rebalauce Lradle or seeure’ Lational econuuic interests
By inderstuuding
[lie Mckinlev Tarill
olltcolules
We call hetter infori tliese olgoilg ‘Iebates
Ie proceedl ;s follows
Section 2 providles listorical backgrouidl O1′ tlie’ MlcKinley Tariff,
including its political context.
key Provisions
andl imntedlinte eoolomic impact 7s recordled
ly I’tli-Ceuturv UlserVers.
Section 3 reviews prior empirical findlings oI tlie tiriff & cffects
[rom ccollolic historians anld contriists tle period’
colVeHt iulLill wisdlolii witli insiglits Irolu
Deep
Deer
vuising
using
large
power
Lariff
risiug
pulslie
(ortal
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mnean, notDaa. Honesty;’ve goten papers
to refereethat are worsethan this. The path
from hereto steps where you can massively
speed up pace Of researchis really clear. You
can read yourself here:
kevinbryaneconcomlo3McKinley pdf 3/x
01
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KevinA Bryan
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triedto spin upatheory paperas well. On
my guidance on the problemit pulledafew
dozen papers, scanned them then tried to
write a modelin line with what l said.
4/x
다음으로 감지팀 영어 (미국)
How good canit doliterally one
더 보기
한국어
말 그대로 한방에 얼마나 잘 할 수 있을까? 내
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여기서부터 연구 속도틀 크게 높일 수 있는
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Keanalysis ofthe McKinley Tariff’ s Effects with New
Models and Data
In tliis S(tioni;
We’ #ttomnpt
togetlier tli’ historic al
(ati aldl llarraitives
witli tli
coli ePtu;il fruueworks (lisc Issedl
10 reevaluaite key outcomes of th MKinley Tariff.
Ii
[ocus UII lliree’ intcrrclated ircis:
illustry-lvel outcolles
(specially (lie oltcii-cited
inlunl inlustry c’se’ of tiuplatc .
tarill incidletiee’ indl wellire’ imnplicntiolls
IlUerII
quintitative upproach.
flldl
Uli’ Urill s
1olerIlI
(lie brondler shift or US, comnparative
Ailvantige Aridl trale patteris Aroulil tlit’ turil oftlie’
Infant Industry Protection: The Tinplate Case
Tlie tinplate imlustry provicles
“atiral exprinieut o [otection
Table ?
sumnuiarizes tlic
raipill chinges in tlis indlustry Aroidl tlie’ time of the’ MKinley Tariff.
Talle 2 Us
Tiuplatc’ ProdlucLiou uudl Iiuports
Yeal
US;
Donlestic Procluction (touis)
Imnporte (toIIs)
Turill Rate olI Tinplate
1885
(no (lomestic’ indlustry)
‘))U)))
301 al viiloreii
L89)
(W)) (experiienital)
313 (M)U)
30V (Ire-McKinley)
1892
20,UOO)
2 I9,(W)U)
707 ,l ValoreI (McKiuley)
1805
150,(M)U)
IU),UWU
7/
I9))
311.()M)
35,(W))
70V (Dingley kept ligh)
Sourres: Us Treiisury triwl’ reports (muntiul): Irwin (20KMI) . Figurts Are #pproximnite
Prior t0 1890) tlie US itnportedl virtually all its tinplite; priiirily Iront Britain (South
Iales).
Tli IcKinley Trill ireaitel
profit opportunity for domestic prodluction I imp)얘-
7UV (uty
whiicli roughly raise dl tlic COSt ol imuportedl tinplatc bv 2.2 cents per poumidl
(tinplate Was aliout 2 3
cents/llyin worldl price at tlie time) (Irwin, 2(NM)).
Aineric’;II
trepreHeuIS (uickly Seizedl this 아’ortutitv:
MeV
tinplate mills Were Inilt in Pennsylvania
aI(l Iililil.
By 18y2
(onestic Ultput, (liougli still iolest . liawl
Bv 18o5
US
tinplate production haudl expiudled dralatically; capturing over G0Y of (le donestic Iarket
L5ok
V8 IUUk lolls) ,
Imp)orts fcll iccurdlingly.
By Isys-I9)U).
Ulid
US.
hecullle’ (sscuitially
seIl-sullic ieit
Iu tinplate
prodlucing f5 Iueli is it
forme’rly itlortedl Tlis growtli would
seeInl to vindlicate the infant imlustry Rrgument
tlic triff allowe (1
IW
inlustry to yIUW
wliere IoIIe @xiste d
Howeveir
A8 Iloted
erlier , the’ wellire calculus is Iot 80 favorable;
US
(ollsuinie’re 아
tinplate (wliicli includles caulicries
foudl conipilius
ulidl ultinlitelw (Ollsullnlers 아 ililie’d
gools) piaid higher prices during tlisse’ Vears,
Irwinl (2MM)) calc’ulates tliat ilc tarill raisedl
(oluesstic tinplate prices b” IIcarly tlie’ full amlouliit Oftlic (luty initially (Britisli proclueers (lidl
lowertliir pric (5 S01ue
hllt
tli’ cIergeiiee o US
Ollt|lt
UlIe’ UlIL iller tlit dolestie
proclueers Bet prics just below tli
iuclusive inp)ort Irice). Tlis Ie int tlat for nuc hi o
tlic I89)
Aulericills
suilstiitially IUr( lor (iLlllledl loocl contiillers
Tlie (urill reVeII’
collccted onl tiuplate Mis (llectively tralisferred 10 dlouiestic illinuilicturcrs (indl sullle o
Ias
(eanlweiglit Ioss Irolnl re(lue(“l (ulsuliup)tiun)
Irwin
counterfactuil simulation sllggests tlat without tlie’ tarilr, donestic tinplate pro
(luction Iight liiive’ only Ieconie’ viabl’ arouidl 19012 or Iater
wlei coliverging ironl arldl steel
COSts Ia(le
US Irodluetion IOre colupetitive Iiturally.
So tlie tarifl putentially BAVe tIi
US
tinplate indlustry I0) yeitrs carlie r tliaun otlicrwise. Wisit wortlit? Irwin $ CUst-benefit
ullalysis saty5 IIO: the cumultive collsuliller cOst exceeded tlie’ profits or learning benefits to
[rolucers
The industry did not display extraordinary learning effects beyond what would
liave liapp eIie’d
(t'(‘iidle lato witli
sliglitly Ietter
techology andl seale
Une’ coldl ,sk: (lidl having tinplate carlier
oII tliat
Tle canning industry likely would hive had access to chieap importedl tinplate in the
aowi
리럽하 시I +
Iring
MsilB
II
beBunl,
given
Urilfs
Vidl
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