외인들은 최근 정부방침을 안좋게 보네요

InGAA, we stay overweight equities, mostlyin the US. We cut our EM Asia
overweight, and half our UK underweight to overallstay +1. Thereasonfor
cutting EM Asiais mostly Korea, whereataxreform package was announced,
Whichincreases thecorporateincome taxlowers thecapital
threshold for
major shareholders andincreasesthe securities transaction taxand dividend
incometax Whilein general we think that tax changes do notimpact markets for
verylong we dothink these measures are180 degrees opposed to the sentiment of
the
Korea Up” program Which was meantto boost valuation Given how
important this program wasin the recentlarge Kospi outperformance, we think
more downsideis likely India another large component of EM Asia has received
rather unfavorable treatmentinthe second round oftariffs Wethereforetake EM
Asia backfrom +0.5to neutral In order to keep equities overallat +1, we cut our
underweight theUKto-0.5.
GAA 포트플리오 조정: 미국 중심 주식 비중 유지, 아시야 신용국 비중 축소
GAA(Global Asset Allocation)에서는 주식 비중 오버웨이트(+1)틀 유지
**하여, 주로 **미국 중심의 주식 비중올 강화
EM 아시아 비중은 +0.5에서 중립(이)으로 하향 조정
주문 이유는 한국의 세제 개편안 발표
법인세 인상
대주주 양도소득세 기준 하향
증권거래세 및 배당소득세 인상
* 이러한 조치논 최근 “코리아 업(Korea Up)” 프로그램과 정반대의 정책**이
며 이는 주가 상승올 유도하던 기존 정책과 배치팀
* 코스피 상승의 핵심 동력이없던 만큼 , **향후 주가 하락 위험이 존재
gains

CLSA
Korea strategy
Market outlook
Jongmin Shim
Yikestaxhikes
jongmin shim@cisacom
Disappointing policy tolead to market correction in near term
+82 2 397 8468
Korean government announced
initial tax reform proposal
31 July
Hyukgi Min
recently flagged bythelocal press the dividend tax cut was worse than expected(359
+82 2 397 8521
announcedversus 2596 expected) and the major shareholder status threshold lowered
from wSbn to wibn while
corporate taxratelift of 1% and
securities transaction
lift of 5bps were also suggested Other anti-market suggestions included
5Obp
tax hike for financial institutions on the education tax and theremoval of tax-exempt
dividends. Although we believe not al of these will be passed by the National
Assembly as in the initial suggestion in the near term the market is likely to be
August 2025
disappointed with many of the anti-market policies
Although
we still believe
structural rerating of the Kospi remains intact we may see near-term volatility and
Korea
pullback of sectors which rallied on the back of hopes of
dividend income tax cut
Market
Strategy
like of financials and chaebol-owned Holdcos
For now the sectors we prefer are
semislAl, shipbuilders
nuclear, auto and biolhealthcare.
Korea strateay
Addressina recent
Lee government’s initial tax reform proposal announced
concerns (30 July 2025)
On 31 July the Korean government announced the first draft of the taxreform which was
more disappointing than positive.
CLA
Korcactntroy
As recent local articles suggested in the recent tWO wecks all the issues which were
mentioned including
lower tax benefit on
dividend income tax cut
lower threshold
for the mnajor shareholder status 1%6 increase in the corporate tax
securities transaction
tax increase of Sbps were all included in the initial proposal
Moreover the removal of tax-exempt dividends (detail here)
tax hikefor financial
institutions on the edlucation tax were additional negatives
We were expecting some tax hikes as fiscal policies were expansionary thus not surprising
However as some Dernocratic Party of Korea (DPK) mnembers were vocal on further tax
cuts and the President continuously arguing forafurther equity market rerating it was
surprising to see the initial draft going against the big picture
However one thing to noteis this i5 an initial draft and
firal version usually is passed
through the National Assembly by the end of the Year, and thus we arelikely to see mnany
changes over the next five months beforeit is finalised.
Kored strategy
Early innings of d
sticks,no carrots
rerating (19 June 2025)
We were welcoming changes to the commercial code, which was to prevent companies and
chaebols from going against minority shareholder interests Howeverfor this to work,
CLSA Kor무a stratcm
some things should be offered as an incentive which we believed to be dividend income
tax and inheritance tax cuts.
The inheritance tax was not discussed as expected The dividend income tax cut has too
manyifs and even the 3596 tax rate likely to be applied for the largest shareholders is not
attractiveenouphforthemtobeexcitedtonushunnavouit ritio
ouryiew
The
tax
50bp
Only