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Model Estimates of Cost of War Over Taiwan
Impact on GDP in first year
Trade Shock
Semiconductors Shock
Financial Shock
Taiwan
South Korea
South East Asia
Mainland China
Japan
Mexico
World
EU
Indonesia
Turkey
India
Russia
Australia
Canada
US
UK
Brazil
40
-30
20
10
Source: Bloomberg Economics
Note: Estimate for Taiwan based on recent conflicts, estimate for rest of world
based on semiconductor, trade and financial shock models
Bloomberg
