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NOAIURA
Global Markets Research
Global memory
24 September 2025
EQUlTy: MEMORY
Unprecedented super-cycle
Research Analysts
Asia Pacific Technology
DRAM, HBM, and NAND triple super-cycle in 2026F
CW Chung
NIHK
cwchung@nomura com
+852 2252 6075
US Big Tech’s investments in both Al and conventional servers to boost 2026F memnory
Eon Hwang
NFIK
demand; commodity DRAMINAND OPM to reach historical high in 2026F
eon hwang@nomura com
There had been market concerns that comnpetition amnong DRAM players in the HBM market
+822 3783 2318
would intensify from 2026
as Samsung (005930 KS Buy) is likely to come back to Nvidia’s
Heesoo Min
NFIK
(NVDA US Not rated) HBM marketin 2026. On the flip side the demand for conventional server
heesoo min@nomura com
DRAM SSDs, and other products was expected to recover thanks to the recovery Of traditional
+822 3783 2333
server demand. Following OpenAl’s (unlisted) launch of ChatGPTin 2022, US Big Tech
companies have established longer-term plans to expand their capex and additional data center
shells
which typically take over two years to construct
are
expected toincrease significantly
from mid-2025 to 2026,in our view. However, the strength of the demand recovery appears to
significantly exceed our earlier expectations made in late July (Samsung , Hynix report)
While Big Tech companies have been rapidly expanding their Al server investments, traditional
server investments declined by 3096 y-y in 2023 and only began expanding this year by c.1596,
and will increase by 20-3096 in 2026F,in our view Consequently; we expect demand for
traditional server-related memory such as DDR4 and DDR5 to grow by around 509 in 2026F
while we project demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSD) used in both Al and traditional servers to
nearly doublein 2026F. We expect eSSD demand which accounts for approximately 4096 of
total NAND demand, to grow by over 10096 next year, partly due to strong storage demand from
both traditional and Al data centers and partly due toalack of HDD supply in 2026F, leading to
overall NAND bit demand y-y growth of at least 5096. As a result shipment forecasts are
revised upward, inventory levels should rapidly decline, and we expect price increases to OCCur
faster than we had previously anticipated Overall, we expect the memory industry’s capital
expenditure growth to accelerate beyond our previous forecasts.
OPM for commodity DRAM, currently at 40-5096, appears capable Of recovering to levels
approaching its previous peak of 7096 (in 2017) by 2026F We expect NAND operating margins
currently at break-even levels, to entera boom phase; with margins of 30-4096 by 2026FHBM
has seen operating proffit margins polarized between 3096 and 7096 among manufacturers this
year However Samsung’s entry into the HBM3E 12hi and HBMA 12hi markets could narrow this
margin gap to 45-6596,in our view. Nevertheless
we still
anticipate ultra-high profitability
exceeding the DRAM industry s historical average.
Memory market to experience an unprecedented super-cycle; raise TPs for Samsung and
Hynix to KRW123,000 and KRW54O,000, respectively
being